Under the traditional 400V architecture, permanent magnet motors are prone to heating and demagnetization under high current and high speed conditions, making it difficult to improve the overall motor power. This provides an opportunity for the 800V architecture to achieve increased motor power under the same current intensity. Under the 800V architecture, the motor faces two major requirements: bearing corrosion prevention and enhanced insulation performance.
Technology Route Trends:
Motor winding process route: flat wire. A flat wire motor refers to a motor that uses a flat copper clad winding stator (specifically a permanent magnet synchronous motor). Compared with a circular wire motor, a flat wire motor has advantages such as small size, high slot filling rate, high power density, good NVH performance, and better thermal conductivity and heat dissipation performance. It can better meet the performance pursuit of lightweight, high power density, and other performance requirements under high voltage platforms, At the same time, it can alleviate the bearing corrosion problem caused by the breakdown of oil film and the formation of shaft current when the shaft voltage is high.
1.Motor cooling technology trend: oil cooling. Oil cooling solves the disadvantages of water cooling technology by reducing motor volume and increasing power. The advantage of oil cooling is that the oil has non-conductive and non magnetic properties, better insulation performance, and can directly contact the internal components of the motor. Under the same operating conditions, the internal temperatures of oil cooled motors are about 15% lower than those of water cooled motors, making it easier for the motor to dissipate heat.
Electric control: SiC alternative solution, showcasing performance advantages
Improve efficiency, reduce power consumption, and reduce volume. With the advancement of the 800V high voltage working platform for batteries, higher requirements have been put forward for components related to electric drive and electronic control.
According to data from Fodie Power, silicon carbide devices have the following advantages in the application of motor controller products:
1. It can improve the efficiency of low loads in the electronic control system, increasing the vehicle’s range by 5-10%;
2. Increase the power density of the controller from 18kw/L to 45kw/L, which is conducive to miniaturization;
3. Increase the efficiency of the efficient zone accounting for 85% by 6%, and increase the efficiency of the medium and low load zone by 10%;
4. The volume of the silicon carbide electronic control prototype is reduced by 40%, which can effectively improve space utilization and assist in the development trend of miniaturization.
Electric control space calculation: The market size may reach 2.5 billion yuan,
Three year CAGR189.9%
For the spatial calculation of the motor controller under the 800V vehicle model, we assume that:
1. A new energy vehicle under a high-voltage platform is equipped with a set of motor controllers or an electric drive assembly;
2. Value of a single car: Based on the revenue/sales of the corresponding products announced in the 2021 annual report of Intel, the value is 1141.29 yuan/set. Considering that the popularization and promotion of silicon carbide devices in the field of electronic control products in the future will lead to an increase in the unit value of products, we assume that the unit price will be 1145 yuan/set in 2022 and increase year by year.
According to our calculations, in 2025, the domestic and global market space for electric controllers on the 800V platform will be 1.154 billion yuan and 2.486 billion yuan, respectively. The CAGR for the years 22-25 will be 172.02% and 189.98%.
Vehicle power supply: SiC device application, supporting the development of 800V
In terms of improving product performance: Compared to traditional silicon MOS tubes, silicon carbide MOS tubes have excellent characteristics such as low conduction resistance, higher voltage resistance, good high-frequency characteristics, high temperature resistance, and extremely small junction capacitance. Compared with in vehicle power supply products (OBC) equipped with Si based devices, it can increase switching frequency, reduce volume, reduce weight, improve power density, and increase efficiency. For example, the switching frequency has increased by 4-5 times; Reduce the volume by about 2 times; Reduce weight by 2 times; The power density has been increased from 2.1 to 3.3kw/L; Efficiency improvement by 3%+.
The application of SiC devices can help automotive power products comply with trends such as high power density, high conversion efficiency, and lightweight miniaturization, and better adapt to the needs of fast charging and the development of 800V platforms. The application of SiC power devices in DC/DC can also bring high voltage resistance, low loss, and lightweight to the devices.
In terms of creating market growth: In order to adapt to the traditional 400V DC fast charging pile, vehicles equipped with an 800V voltage platform must be equipped with an additional DC/DC converter to boost 400V to 800V for DC fast charging of power batteries, which further increases the demand for DC/DC devices. At the same time, the high-voltage platform has also promoted the upgrade of on-board chargers, bringing new additions to high-voltage OBCs.
Calculation of Vehicle Power Supply Space: Over 3 billion yuan in space in 25 years, doubling CAGR in 22-25 years
For the spatial calculation of the vehicle power supply product (DC/DC converter&vehicle charger OBC) under the 800V vehicle model, we assume that:
A new energy vehicle is equipped with a set of DC/DC converters and an onboard charger OBC or a set of onboard power integrated products;
Market Space for Vehicle Power Products=Sales of New Energy Vehicles × The individual vehicle value of the corresponding product;
Value of a single car: Based on the revenue/sales volume of the corresponding product in the 2021 annual report of Xinrui Technology. Among them, the DC/DC converter is 1589.68 yuan/vehicle; The onboard OBC is 2029.32 yuan/vehicle.
According to our calculations, under the 800V platform in 2025, the domestic and global market space for DC/DC converters will be 1.588 billion yuan and 3.422 billion yuan, respectively, with CAGR of 170.94% and 188.83% from 2022 to 2025; The domestic and global market space for on-board charger OBC is 2.027 billion yuan and 4.369 billion yuan, respectively, with a CAGR of 170.94% and 188.83% from 2022 to 2025.
Relay: Volume price increase under high voltage trend
High voltage DC relay is the core component of new energy vehicles, with a single vehicle usage of 5-8. The high-voltage DC relay is a safety valve for new energy vehicles, which enters a connected state during vehicle operation and can separate the energy storage system from the electrical system in case of vehicle failure. At present, new energy vehicles need to be equipped with 5-8 high-voltage DC relays (including 1-2 main relays for emergency switching of the high-voltage circuit in the event of accidents or circuit abnormalities; 1 pre charger to share the impact load of the main relay; 1-2 rapid chargers to isolate high-voltage in case of sudden circuit abnormalities; 1-2 ordinary charging relays; and 1 high-voltage system auxiliary machine relay).
Calculation of relay space: 3 billion yuan in space within 25 years, with CAGR exceeding 2 times in 22-25 years
To calculate the space of the relay under the 800V vehicle model, we assume that:
High voltage new energy vehicles need to be equipped with 5-8 relays, so we choose the average, with a single vehicle demand of 6;
2. Considering the increase in the value of DC relays per vehicle due to the promotion of high-voltage relay platforms in the future, we assume a unit price of 200 yuan per unit in 2022 and increase it year by year;
According to our calculations, the market space for high-voltage DC relays on the 800V platform in 2025 is close to 3 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 202.6%.
Thin film capacitors: the first choice in the field of new energy
Thin films have become the preferred alternative to electrolysis in the field of new energy. The core component of the electronic control system of new energy vehicles is the inverter. If the voltage fluctuation on the busbar exceeds the allowable range, it will cause damage to the IGBT. Therefore, it is necessary to use capacitors to smooth and filter the output voltage of the rectifier, and absorb high amplitude pulse current. In the field of inverter, capacitors with strong surge voltage resistance, high safety, long lifespan, and high temperature resistance are usually required. Thin film capacitors can better meet the above requirements, making them the preferred choice in the field of new energy.
The usage of single vehicles is gradually increasing, and the demand for thin film capacitors will be much higher than the growth rate of the new energy vehicle industry. The demand for high-voltage new energy vehicle platforms has increased, while high-end electric vehicles equipped with high-voltage fast charging generally need to be equipped with 2-4 thin film capacitors. Thin film capacitor products will face greater demand than new energy vehicles.
Demand for thin film capacitors: High voltage fast charging brings new growth, with an AGR of 189.2% for 22-25 years
For the spatial calculation of thin film capacitors under the 800V vehicle model, we assume that:
1. The price of thin film capacitors varies depending on different vehicle models and motor power. The higher the power, the higher the value, and the corresponding higher the price. Assuming an average price of 300 yuan;
2. The demand for new energy vehicles with high-pressure fast charging is 2-4 units per unit, and we assume an average demand of 3 units per unit.
According to our calculation, the film capacitor space brought by the 800V fast charging model in 2025 is 1.937 billion yuan, with CAGR=189.2%
High voltage connectors: improvement in usage and performance
High voltage connectors are like blood vessels in the human body, their function is to continuously transmit energy from the battery system to various systems.
In terms of dosage. At present, the entire vehicle system architecture is still mainly based on 400V. In order to meet the demand for 800V fast charging, the DC/DC voltage converter from 800V to 400V is required, thereby increasing the number of connectors. Therefore, the high-voltage connector ASP of new energy vehicles under the 800V architecture will be significantly improved. We estimate that the value of a single car is about 3000 yuan (traditional fuel powered vehicles have a value of about 1000 yuan).
In terms of technology. The requirements for connectors in high-voltage systems include:
1. Possess high voltage and high current performance;
2. Implement high-level protection functions under various working conditions;
Possess good electromagnetic shielding performance. Therefore, in order to meet the performance requirements under the 800V trend, the technological iteration of high-voltage connectors is inevitable.
Fuses: Increased penetration rate of new fuses
Fuses are the “fuses” of new energy vehicles. A fuse is an electrical device that, when the current in the system exceeds the rated value, the heat generated will fuse the melt, achieving the purpose of disconnecting the circuit.
The penetration rate of new fuses has increased. The excitation fuse is triggered by an electrical signal to activate the excitation device, allowing it to release stored energy. Through mechanical force, it quickly generates a break and completes the arc extinguishing of a large fault current, thereby cutting off the current and achieving protection action. Compared to traditional fuses, the excitation capacitor has the characteristics of small size, low power consumption, strong current carrying capacity, resistance to large current shocks, fast action, and controllable protection timing, making it more suitable for high voltage systems. Under the trend of 800V architecture, the market penetration rate of incentive fuses will rapidly increase, and it is expected that the value of a single vehicle will reach 250 yuan.
Space calculation for fuses and high-voltage connectors: CAGR=189.2% from 22 to 25 years
For the spatial calculation of fuses and high-voltage connectors under the 800V vehicle model, we assume that:
1. The single vehicle value of high-voltage connectors is about 3000 yuan/vehicle;
2. The single vehicle value of the fuse is about 250 yuan/vehicle;
According to our calculations, the market space for high-voltage connectors and fuses brought by the 800V fast charging model in 2025 is 6.458 billion yuan and 538 million yuan, respectively, with CAGR=189.2%
Post time: Nov-10-2023
